1. Anatomy of the Greek Depression with Firm-Level Data: The Importance of Demand Shocks (with P. Sakellaris)

     American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (2025) [published here]

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Abstract: During the Greek Depression, which saw a 22% decline in output, young firms and small firms experienced significantly steeper declines in sales growth compared to their mature and larger counterparts. This disparity was largely driven by adverse demand shocks and was further intensified by financing constraints, with a significant interaction between these two factors amplifying the impact. Firm-level heterogeneity played a critical role in shaping macroeconomic outcomes, with the disproportionate impact on young firms and small firms accounting for approximately one-quarter of the total output decline during the crisis.

2. Unanticipated inflation, unemployment persistence and the New Keynesian Phillips curve (with G. Alogoskoufis)

     Economica (2025) [published here]

Abstract: This paper puts forward an analytically tractable dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, with both labour and product market frictions. Frictions in the labour market arise from the power of labour market insiders to periodically preset nominal wages, without full current information. Product market frictions arise from monopolistic competition and staggered pricing. The model results in an insider–outsider New Keynesian Phillips curve (IO-NKPC) that transcends the main limitations of the benchmark and hybrid NKPCs based on staggered pricing, as: (i) it is expressed in terms of unanticipated inflation since current inflation depends on prior expectations about its level; (ii) unemployment (output) and inflation persistence are endogenous; and (iii) the divine coincidence between the stabilization of inflation and employment (output) does not apply, rendering a Taylor-type interest rate rule optimal. Dynamic simulations revealmultifaceted inflation dynamics shaped by the interplay of price stickiness and labour market persistence. An empirical application to the euro area validates the IO-NKPC’s superior forecasting performance, highlighting its relevance for understanding inflation dynamics and guiding effective monetary policy design.

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3. Firm Dynamics by Age and Size Classes and the Choice of Size Measure (with P. Sakellaris), Oxford Economic Papers 

     (2022) [published here]

Abstract: The relationship of firm size and age to its growth and survival differs depending on whether the size is measured by sales or employment. Using a large dataset of Greek firms over the period 1999–2014, we find the following patterns. Controlling for age, there is a strong negative growth–size relationship when measuring size with sales, but a strong positive one when measuring size with employment. Controlling for size, there is a positive monotonic survival–age relationship when measuring size with sales, whereas survival is negatively related with age for young firms when we measure size with employment. Our results indicate that public policies aimed at supporting SMEs should be specialized to the employment scale and the sales scale of enterprises, separately.

4. Firm Uncertainty, Firm Entry and Investment Dynamics (single-authored)
     Scottish Journal of Political Economy (2021) [published here]

Abstract: Previous macro- and micro-level evidence indicate that fluctuations in idiosyncratic uncertainty have an important effect on investment, both directly and indirectly through financial market frictions. The objective of this paper was to explore, beyond the two traditional and complementary channels, a new one: firm entry. By utilizing a novel and large dataset on Greek firms covering the entire economy over the period 2000–2014 and employing a panel-VAR methodology, we examine and evaluate the impact of shocks to the number of startups, idiosyncratic uncertainty, and financial conditions on the investment growth at the industry level. Our findings can be summarized as follows. First, a shock to the number of new firms has significant effects on investment that persist for many years. Second, although all the three variables are important drivers of investment growth dynamics, uncertainty has the largest impact (explaining about the 15% of the variability of investment growth), firm creation follows (it explains about the 7%), while financial conditions have the smallest direct effect (explaining the 3.5%). Finally, we demonstrate that firm entry constitutes an important propagation mechanism for the transmission of uncertainty shocks in the investment growth trajectories.